?????????????????2???????????????11??????? (????? ??????)??????????«?????????-????»?????2024?«??????????????????????»??????????,2024????1.5°C,????????????????1.5°C???,?????«??»??????????????????????

??«???????»???????????????1.5°C???????,2015??????,«????»????,?????1.5°C?????«???????????»????20-30?????,?(????)?????????

???????,??20???2020??2030????????????,??????2024???1.5°C???,?????????«????»??????

????,??????Emanuele Bevacqua???“??6”(CMIP6)??????????????,??????????1981??????????????2014???????

?????,??0.6°C-1°C?????????,??20????????????,??????????2024?????1.5°C,????????20????????????????????????????,??,2024????????????????(?????66%)????????(????????99%)??????1.5°C????20????????

????,????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????????????????,?,????1.5°C?????????????20????????????????,?????1.5°C???????20???????????,?20??????????

???????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6??????,2024??????????6?12??????1.5°C,??????????????????????«?»?????????,??????????12????1.5°C???(???20???)??????????????,?????????????????????SSP2-4.5?????,?76%,??????????SSP1-2.6??,???????56%?

?????,?,????????????18????????1.5°C????,????SSP2-4.5?????,???????????????

????????????,???????????????,?????????????,??,?????«????????»?????(???) ?????????:???????

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