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????2???11???? (????? ??)???????????????????«????-??????????»????????????????2024??????????????????????«????»?,2024???1.5°C,??????????????1.5°C????,???????????????«?????»?????

?????????«????»??????1.5°C??????,2015?????,«?????»??,???1.5°C????????????????«??»?????20-30?,????????????(?)??????????????????????

????,???20?????????2020????????2030????????????,???????2024????1.5°C?????????,?????«?»???

???????,??????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????????????????????“?????????????????6”(CMIP6)?,???????1981???????2014?????

??????????,????0.6°C-1°C???,?20??????????????????????????,??2024????????1.5°C,?????????????20???????,????,2024??????????????(??????????66%)???(???99%)????????????1.5°C????20?????????

???????,???????????(SSP)2-4.5??????,???????,???????????1.5°C??????20?????????????????????????????,??1.5°C????????20??????,???????20???????

????????????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????CMIP6?????,2024????6???????12??1.5°C,????????«?????»???,????????12??????????1.5°C?(??20??????????)??????,????SSP2-4.5???,??????????76%,??????????????SSP1-2.6????????,????56%?

??????????,?????,?????18??????????1.5°C??,?SSP2-4.5?????????,??????????

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