????“????”?

????:???????????????

???????2025.2.24???1176?????????«???????????????????????????????»???

2025????????????????????2????????18??????????????,??????????,?“??????”?????????????“??????????”???????,??

???????,???????,???????,????????????????????????????????,???????????,??????????????????????

???,?“???????????????,?????????????????????”,???????????“?????”?????????,??????????18??,??????“???????????”??,??????

??????2?????18?????,??????,???“??,?????????????”??????????????????????????????,“????????,‘??,??’?,??(?????????????)?”

??????????,????,??????????,???????????,????????,?????“????”?

?????????????????????????“???”???????????????????????????????

?????????

2???????13???????????,?????????????,?????????“?????????”????????????????,??,?“??????????”?

??????????????????????????????????????2024????????????????????????,???????????????????,????????????,?????????????:“??????????38???”

??,??????????????,????????????

“?????????????????,???????????????????,??????(?)?????????????????????????????”??????(OSCE)??????«??????????»???????????????????????

??????2?????13??????????,?:???????,????????????????????,??????????????????,?????????????????

“??(????????????????)?????????????????????,????????????????:???????????”?????????(ECFR)??????????????????????,????,??????????,???????????????????????????,??????????

????????????,?????????“?”?,??????????,?“???????????????”??????“24?????”??????????“??????????”??“????????????(4??????????20?????????)??”,????????????????????,?????????????

???,2????????????????????18??,????????????????????,???????????,??

???????????,??????,?????“??????”???«???????»??,????????????????????????????,?????????????“?”?

??????????????,???????????????,?????????????,??????????2024???????,???????????????,???????????,???????????????????????????????????????,???????????

???,????????2025????????,???????????????????????????,??????????????1991??????“??”,??????????“???????????????????,?????”???,???????????????,??????????????????

??2022????????????????,?????????????????,????????,?????????“?????????????????”?????????????????,2022???????????,?????????,?,????

???????????,?????????????????????????????????????????“???,???,???,??”????????????????????????«??????????????????»???????????????????,“?????????,????,???????????????”

????????????????,?????????,???????,??????????????????,????????????????????,?????????????“??,???????????”

??????????????“??????”???????????????????????(shock and awe)???????????«????????»???????????????????????,?,?“????????????????????,????,??????,????????????????”?

“???????,??????,????”??????????????????,“??????”????,?????????????????????“???????”?

?????,??,??????????,???????????,????????;??????,???????????????????“??”,??????,?“?????????????”?,???????,????“????”?

6???????????2019?,??,???????????????????????????????,???????:???????????????????,??????????????????????,??????????????

?????,???????,??,??????????“???”??????????,????????????,?????????????2022???,?????????,?????????,“?????????????????????(????????)???????,??????????????????,???????????”?

??????,??????????,???,???????,????????????????????“???????”?

“????????????”

2025????2????????????14???,????,«??»????????????,??“???????”???:“??????????????,????????????,???????????????????????”

??????????,????????????????????????????????,???????????????,????????????“??????”,???????????????????????????????????,???????????????“???????????”??????,?????“??,?”?

?????????????????,?,?“?”???????????,???“???”????????????????????????«???????????»???????

???????????????????????????,??????????????????“???????????????”???????????????????????,????????????2025??????????????1?????????????????????,??,???????????????????,“??????????????,??”??,??????,??????????????,???????“???????????????”?

“????,?,?????????”??,“??????????????,????????????????”

???????????2024????????????????????12?????,?????????????,????????????????“?”,?????????????????,???????,??“??????”????????,???,???

?,??????????????????:2019?????,????“?????????????????”????????,??????????2020???????????????????“??????????????????????????”,????????“???????”??????????????

????,???????????????????????????“???”,????????????????????????????,2014?????????????,???????????«????????????»,????,???????????“?????”?????????????????????????

??????????????2020 ????????????? 6 ???,?,?“?”,?????????????????????????????2016????????2022?????????????????????2????,??????8??????????????????????????????????????,???????

??????,??????????,????2014?????????????????2022?????,??????????????????????????????,?????“??????????????????????”,?2022????????????????:????????5??????????????????????????????????,????“??????????????????,?????????????????????????”?

???????????«???»??,???????????,??????,??,???????:“??????,???????????‘????????????????????,????????????????????’?”

???????????????,??????????“?????????????????”?????????????????????“??????”?????????????,????,????,?????????,???????????????,????????????,??????????,????????????

“????????????????????,?????????????,????????????????????,????‘?????’?”??????

????????????????????,??????,?????????,???????????:???????,??????????????,????????????????

?????????,???????????????,?:???????????????????:??????,????????????????????????

“???”

2024???????12????18?????????,“???????”???????,?????????????????????????,????????????,??????“?????????”??????????????????,????????????????

??????,????????????????,??12??????????????????14??15?“?????”,??????“???????”???????????,??????????????????,????????:????,??“???????????????????????”?

???????????????????????,?????,???,?????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????

???,????“??????????????”????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????7??????????«?????????????»???,?????????“?????”??????;?????????,??“???????”;?????

????????????,???????????????,?????????????????“????????”???,???“????”??????????

????????????????????????????????,??“??????,?????????????”;????,???????????????“??”??????????????,????????????????????,?????????“????”?

??????,?????2025????2??12??,????14?????????1.8???????????????,?????????????,?????????50%??????????????????????

??????????????????,????????????????????,???,????????????:??,????????????

??????????“?????????”???????????,????????????????15%,?????????2024?5??23%?????“??????”,????????,????????,?????????????:???????????

?????????,???????????????????????(GDP)?????0.75%?????,??????GDP????????0.52%,?????11?????

??,?“??”,?????????“?????????”?????????????????,??????????,?????????,??????????????,??5000?????????

??????????????,???????????????,?????????????????????,??????,????????????????????????????,????????????????????????,?????“??????”???????

??,?????:???????????????,“??”???????????????????????????????????,?:“?????????????????,???????,????????????”

???????????????,????????????????????,????????????????700???,????????????????????:“????,?????????????????????????????????,???????????????????????????????????:????????????????”

2024???????????????????????????,?????????,????“?????????????????????”?

“????????????????:??,??,???????????????”??1918??????,??,?(John Joseph Pershing)????????“??????,????????????20???????????????”,?????????????????????????????????????????????

“?????????????”??????????????????????????????????????:????????????,??????????????“???????”???,??

?????????????«??????»?????????????????,??????,????????????????,???????,?,?????????????????“???????????????????”????????,????

?????,?????,????????,????????????????“????????????”,?????????????????????,???????,????,???????????????????“???????,??????????????????”?

???????2025?????????????????2???????17????????????????,?????????“?????”??????????????????????3???????????????????????????????,?,??

?????????“??”?,?????,????“??????”??????????“???????”;??????????,??????????????????????«???????????????»??????????????,????????,???????,??????????????“????????”?

«???????»2025????????6?????

??:???????????«??»?????????????????? ??????????:???????