????“????”?

?:????????????????

??????????????2025.2.24??1176??«????????????»???????

2025????????????2????????18???,?????????????????,?“??????”??????“?????????????????”?,??????????

???????,????????????????,??????,??????????????????????,??,?????????

??????????????,?????“????????,???”,??“??????”???????????,??????????18????????????????,??“????????????????????”???,??????

?2????????????????18??????,???,?????????????“???????????,????”?????????????????????????????????,“??,‘????????,???????’????????,??????????(??)?”

??????,?????,?????????,????????????????,????????????????,????????????????“?????????”?

???????????????????????“????????????”???????????????????????????

?????????

2?????13??????????,???????????????????,????????????????“??????????????”???????,????,????????“????????”?

????????????????????????????????????2024?????,???????????,?????,????:“??????38???”

??????????????????,??,??????????

“?????,?????????,?????????(????????????????????)???????”??????????????????????????????????(OSCE)?«??????»???????

????2??????13?????????,?????????????:??????????????,????????????????????,???,????????????????????

“?????????????(???????????????????)??????,????????:????????????????????”???????(ECFR)??????????????????????????????,?????,?,????????????,??????????

???,???“???”?,????????????????????,??????“?????????????”??“24??????”????????“???????????????”?????????????????“?(4?????20???????)???????????????????????????”,????????????????,???

??,2???????18??????????????????????,?????????????,??,???????????

??????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????,??“?????????????”?????«?????»????,???????????????,?????????????“??????????????????”?

??,????????,???????????????,??????????2024??,????,?????????,?????,??

???????,????????2025??,????????????????,????????????????????????????1991????????“?????????”,??“?,???????????”???????,??,???

????2022?????,?,??????,?“???”??????????????,2022??????,????????????????????,????????????,???????????????????

??????,????????????????“????????????????????????????,???????????????????????????????????????,????????????,?????”??????????????????«????»?????????,“????,????,??????”

?????????,???????????,?????????????????????????????????,???????,???????,???“???????????,??”

???????????????????????????????????“?????????????”??????????(shock and awe)?????????????????«???????????????»???????,?????,?????????“?????????????,?,??,?????????????????????”?

“?????????????????????,????????????????????????,????????”??????????????????????????????????????,“???”????,?????????“?????????????????????????”?

???????????????,?????????,??????????????????????,??,??????????????????;??????????????????????????????????????????????,?“???”,???????????????????????,????“???????????”???????,???,?“????????”?

6???????????2019?,???????????????????,??????????????????????,?????????????:?????,?????????????,????????

????,???????????????,???????????,???????????????????“????????????”???????????????????????????????,????????????????,?2022???????????????????????????,???????????????,???????????????,“????????(???)???????????,???????????????????????????,??????????”?

?,???????????,????????????,?????????????,?“????”?

“??????????????”

2025???????2?????????????????????????14??????????,???????,«???»?????????????????????????,?????“???????????”????????????:“??,??????????????????????????,???????????????”

?????,????????????????????,????????????????,?????????????“??????????????????”,????????????????????????,?????????????????????“????”??,??????“???????????????????,?????????????????”?

??,????????????????,??“??????????????????????????”?????????????????????,???????“??????”???????«???????????»???

???????????????,??“??????????????”??????????????????,??2025?????????????1????,????????????,???????,“??????????,???????????????”??????????????????????,??,??????????????????,????????“?????”?

“?????????,??????????,?????”?????????,“?????????????,????????????”

???????????2024?12???????????,?,?????????????“???????????????”,?????????,??????????????????????????????,????????“????????????????”????????????????,??????,????????????

???????????????????,?????????????????????????????????????:2019??,?????????????????“???????”????????????????????,??????2020??????????????????“???????????”,???“?????????????????????????”???

??????????,???????????????“?????”,?????????????????????,2014???????????????,??????????????«??»,?????,??“??????????”???????????????

???????2020 ??????????? 6 ????????????????,?????????????????????,??????????“?????????????”,???????????2016??????2022???????2?,??8???????????,?????????????

?,???????????????,???2014???2022?,???????????????,?????????“????????????????????”,??????????????????2022?????:??5??,????????????????????“??,?????????”?

??????????????????????????«?»???,????????????,?????????,??????????,??????????????:“???????,?????‘??????????????????,??????????????????’?”

??????????????,????????“??????????????”????????“???????????”??????,???????????????????????????????,??????????????,???????????,????????????????,??????????,????????????????????????,??????????????????????????

“?????,????????,??????????????,??‘?’?”??????

????????,?????????????,??,?????????:??,????,??

????,??????????????????,???:???????????:??????????,????????????????????????????????????????

“????????”

2024?????????????????????12?????????18??,“?????????????”?????,????????,??????????,?????????“????????”???????????????????,?????????????????????

?????????,???????????,??????12?????????????????14?????????15??“?????”,????????????“????”???????????????,?,????:????,??????????“???”?

???????????????,?????????????????,??????,??????????,??????????

??????????,?“??????”???????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????7???????????????????????«??»??,??????“????”?????;???????????,??????????“????????????”;??????

?????????,??????????????,?????“??”???????,????????????????????“?????????”??

??,??????????????????????????“?????????????,????????????????????”;???,?“??????”???,???????????????????????,???“???????”?

????????????,???????2025????????????????????2???12???????????,??14????????????1.8????????????????,????????,???????50%?????????????????

??????????????????????,??????,?????????,?????:?,???????????

??????????????“?”?????????????,???????15%,?????2024?????????????????????????5???????23%??“?????????????????”,????????????????????????,??,????????:????????

???????,???????????????????(GDP)???0.75%???????????,???????GDP?????????????0.52%,??????????11???????????????????

??,?????????????“??????????”,?????????“??????????”???????????????????,???????????????????????????????????,????????,??,????5000????????????

???????????????????????????,??,???????????????????,????,??????????????????????,??????????????????,???????“??”???????????

??????,???:?????????,“???????????????”????????????????????????????????????,??:“??????????????????????,???,?????????????????”

???????????????,?????????,????????????????700?????,????????????????:“?,????????????,?????????????????????:?????????????????????”

2024???????,????????????????,???????“???????????????????”?

“???????????:??????????????????,?????????????????????,????”???????????1918??????,???????,????????????(John Joseph Pershing)???????????????“?????????????,????????20??????????????”,??????????????????????????????

“??”????????????:????????,???????“??????”?????????????????????,????????????

?????????????????«?»????????,???????,??????????????????????????????,??,????,????“???????”???????????????,????????????????????

?????????,???????????????????,????,?????????“??????”,?????????????????,??????,?,???????“?,??????????”?

???2025?????????????2?17??,?????????“?”?????????????3?????????????,???????,???

???????????????“?”?????????,???,????????“????????????????”????????????“??????”;???????????????,??????????????????«?????????????????????»???,?????,????,?“????????”?

«????????????????????»2025????????????6???????????????

?:??????«??????»????????? ???????:??