2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

????:????????????:??????????

????????2????????????11?????????? (???????? ?????????)?????«??????-?»?????2024??????????«????????????????»????,2024????????1.5°C,?1.5°C????,????«??????»???

????«???????????»???????1.5°C?????????,2015?????????????????,«????»??,????1.5°C???????????????????????«???????»?????20-30???????,?????(?????)?????

????,???????????20????????????2020???2030????,??2024??????1.5°C????,?????«?»?????

?????????,?????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???????“???6”(CMIP6)??????????????,?????????1981???????????????2014????????

???,??????????????????????0.6°C-1°C??,??20??????????,??2024?????1.5°C,???????20????????????,?????,2024???(????66%)???(???99%)????1.5°C?????????????????20??????????????????

????????????????,????????(SSP)2-4.5?????????,????????,???1.5°C??????????20????????????????,????????1.5°C????????20????????,?20?????

???????????????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6?????,2024?6????12??????????1.5°C,???????????????«??????????????»????,??????12??????1.5°C???(????????????20?????)???????,????SSP2-4.5??????????,?????????????????????76%,??????SSP1-2.6?????,????56%?

?????????????,????,??18?????????1.5°C????,??????????SSP2-4.5??,??????????????

??????,??????,???,??????????,??????«??????»??(???????????) ??????:???????????????