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2?51?????

3????????95?98?

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5????????????

?????????????????2?????11???????????? (?? ???????)?????«????-?????????????????»??????????2024?«??????????»?????,2024?????1.5°C,????????1.5°C?,???«???»???????

????«?????»???????1.5°C????????,2015????,«?????????????»??????,????????1.5°C????????????????«???????»????????20-30????,?????(????????????)????????????

????????????,?????20?????2020??????????????????????2030????????????,????2024??1.5°C?????,?????«??»?????

?????????,??????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“???????6”(CMIP6)??,??????????1981??2014?????

????,??0.6°C-1°C??????,????20?????????????????,?????2024???1.5°C,?????????????????????20?????????????????,?????,2024??????????????(??????66%)???(??????????99%)?????????1.5°C??????20?????????????????

?????????,????(SSP)2-4.5????,????,?????1.5°C??????????????20?????????????????????,?1.5°C????20??,?????????????20????????

??????????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6??,2024?????????6?????????????????12?????????1.5°C,???«??????????????????????»???????????????,?12???1.5°C???(????20???????)??????????,???????????SSP2-4.5????,??76%,?SSP1-2.6??????,???????????56%?

????,??,????????18??????????????1.5°C??????????,???SSP2-4.5?,??

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