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???????2????11????????????????? (??????????????? ???)???????????«??-??»??????2024?«?????»????????,2024???1.5°C,???????1.5°C?????,??????«????????»???????????????

???«?????????????????????»????1.5°C???????,2015????,«?????????????»??????????,????1.5°C???????????«??????»??????????20-30?????????,??????(????)????

???????,????20????????????????2020??????????????????????2030????????,???????????2024???????????1.5°C?,?«??????????????»???????????

????,????Emanuele Bevacqua????????????“???????6”(CMIP6)????????,????????1981???????????2014?????

????,???????0.6°C-1°C??????????,??????20???????,??????2024??1.5°C,?????20??????????????????,??????????????????????,2024???(??66%)?(?????99%)??1.5°C???????20?????????????

?,????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????,????????,????1.5°C?????20??????????,?????????????????1.5°C???20?????????,??20?????????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6?????,2024????6???12????1.5°C,??«?»??,????12?????????????1.5°C????(?????????20?????????)????????????,?????SSP2-4.5???,?????????????????????76%,?????SSP1-2.6????????????????,????56%?

???,????????,????18??????1.5°C????,????SSP2-4.5???,???????????????

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