2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

?2??????11?????????????????????? (?? ???)????????????????«?????????????????-?????????»?2024??«????????????????»????,2024??????????1.5°C,??1.5°C??????????,?????????«?????????????»???????????

????«???????»????1.5°C???????????,2015???????,«???????????»????,??????????1.5°C?????«??»??20-30???????????????,?(????)?????????

?????????,????20?2020??????2030??????,????2024?????1.5°C?????????,??«???????»????????????

?????,???????????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“?????????6”(CMIP6)?????,????????????1981????2014??????

?,?????0.6°C-1°C??????????????????????,??????20?????????????????????????????,??????????2024?????1.5°C,?????20???????,?????,2024??????(???????66%)????(????99%)????1.5°C????????20????

???,????????(SSP)2-4.5??????,??????????????,?????????????????????1.5°C?20????????,??1.5°C???20?????????????????,?????????20?????

????????????????????Alex J. Cannon???????????CMIP6??????????,2024????6??????12?????1.5°C,??«?????»?,????12????1.5°C??????(??20?????)?????????????????????????,?SSP2-4.5??????????,?????76%,????SSP1-2.6????,??????56%?

???,?????????????????????,????????18???????1.5°C??,????SSP2-4.5??,????????

????,????????????,???????????????,???????,???????«?????»????(???????) ??????????????????:?????????