?????????????????2??????????????????????11????????????? (???? ????)??????????????????????????«????-???????????»???????2024??????????????«???????????????»????????,2024??1.5°C,??????????1.5°C????,???????????«???????»????

????????????«?»?1.5°C????????????????,2015????,«????????????????»???,????????1.5°C???????«???»??20-30?????,?????(????)??????

???,????20???2020??????????2030?????????????????????,??2024?????????1.5°C??????,????????«??»?????

??????,????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???“??????????6”(CMIP6)????????,????1981??????2014???????

?,???0.6°C-1°C???????,????????20??????????????,??????????2024???1.5°C,????20????,?????????????????,2024??????(??????????????66%)????(????????????99%)???????1.5°C???????20??????

??,??????????(SSP)2-4.5???,????,???1.5°C???????????????20???????????????,????1.5°C?????20?,??20??

?????????????????????????????Alex J. Cannon??CMIP6??????????????,2024??6????????????12?????1.5°C,?????????«????????»??,????12?????1.5°C??????????????????????(??????20??????????)???????????,?????SSP2-4.5?,?????76%,????SSP1-2.6?,?????????56%?

?????????,????,??????????18????????????????1.5°C????,???????SSP2-4.5??,???????????

??????,??????????,?,????,???????«?????»????????(????????) ?????:??????????????????

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