????2?????11????????? (???? ??????????????)????????????????«??????????-????????»????2024??????????«??»?,2024?????1.5°C,?1.5°C??,????«???»?????????????????

?????????????«?????»?????????1.5°C???????????????,2015????????????????,«??????????»???????????????,?1.5°C???????????«??????»???????20-30????,??(??)??????

?????????????????????,?20?????2020?2030??????????????,??????????????2024?????????1.5°C???????,????«?????»??

????,????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????“?????????????????6”(CMIP6)??????????????,?????1981???2014??

?,??????0.6°C-1°C????,?????20???????????????,??????????????????????2024????????????1.5°C,???20????????????????????,????,2024?(??????????66%)???????(????99%)????1.5°C????????20??????

???????????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,????,???1.5°C??????20?????????,???????1.5°C??????20??????,???????20?????

?????????????Alex J. Cannon????????CMIP6???,2024???6???????12???1.5°C,?????«???»??,???????????????12??1.5°C??????(?????20????????)???????????,????????????SSP2-4.5??????????,?????????????????????76%,?????????????SSP1-2.6?????????????????,????????56%?

?????,???????,??18????????1.5°C?????,??????SSP2-4.5????,???

???,?????,??????????,??????????,??«?????????»??????????(??????????????????????) ????:????????????

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