2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

??????????2????11???? (???? ?????????)?????????????????«???????????-???????????»?????????????2024????«????????»??,2024??????????????1.5°C,???????1.5°C?????,????«????»?????

????????«??????»??1.5°C?????????????,2015??????,«????????????????»??,?????????????????1.5°C???????????????«??????»???????20-30???????,??????????(??)???

??????????????????????,?????20??????2020???2030????????????????????,??????????2024????1.5°C??????,????«??????»??

?????????,???????Emanuele Bevacqua??“?6”(CMIP6)?????????????,????????1981?2014????

?????????????????????,?????????0.6°C-1°C???????,????20?????????????,??????????2024????1.5°C,????20??????????????,?,2024?????(???????????66%)?????(????99%)?????1.5°C???????????????20???????????

???,?????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????,???,???????1.5°C???20??????????,?????1.5°C?????20????????,?20??

??????????????????????Alex J. Cannon????????CMIP6???????,2024??6????12?????1.5°C,???«?????»??????????????????????,?????12???????????????1.5°C???????(????20?????????????????)???????????,????SSP2-4.5???,???????76%,????????SSP1-2.6?????????,?????????56%?

????,???,??????????????18??1.5°C??,????????SSP2-4.5????,??

??????,???????????????????,??,????,????«??»??????(????????????) ????????:??????????????????????