???

2024???????:????????????1.5°C?????

2025-02-11 19:38:28 34807

??2????????????11????????????????????? (??????? ???????????)?????????«??-?????»????2024???«???????????????»?,2024????1.5°C,????????????????1.5°C??,?????????«??»?????

?????«???????»??????????????1.5°C???????????????????????,2015????,«??»?????????,??????????1.5°C????«????»?????????20-30??????????,?(?????)??????

????,?????20??????????2020?2030????????????,??????????2024????1.5°C????,??????«?»???????????

??,??????Emanuele Bevacqua??????“???????6”(CMIP6)????,????1981?????????????2014????????

?????????,????????0.6°C-1°C?????????????????,?????20???????????????????????,?????????????2024???????????????1.5°C,????????20?????????,????,2024????(??????66%)??(????99%)??????????1.5°C???????20???????

????????,??????(SSP)2-4.5??????????????,?????????,????1.5°C?20????????????,?1.5°C???????20????,??????20????

???????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????CMIP6????,2024??6??????????????????????12??1.5°C,????«?????????»???????????,?????12??1.5°C??????????????(??????20????????)?????????????????,?SSP2-4.5????????,???76%,???????SSP1-2.6??????,????????56%?

?????,????????????,????18????????1.5°C???,???SSP2-4.5????,???

???,??????,??????????,?????????????????????,??????????????????????«???????????»????(?????????????????) ??????:??????


??????15??????????8???


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