??
???2??11????????? (?????? ???????????)????????«???-?»????????????2024???«????????»???????,2024?1.5°C,???????????1.5°C????????,??«???????»?????
?????«????»?????????1.5°C????????,2015???????,«???????????»????????,??1.5°C???«??????»???????20-30???,????(????)?????????????????
??????????,????????20???2020??????2030??????????????????????????,?????2024?????1.5°C??????,????????«????»?????
????????,????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“??????????????????????6”(CMIP6)??????????,???????1981?????2014???????????????????????
????????????????,??????????0.6°C-1°C????,?????????????????20????????????,??2024????1.5°C,??????????????20???????,?????????????????,2024????(????66%)????????(???????99%)????1.5°C?20???????????????
???????????????,??????????(SSP)2-4.5???????,?????????????????????,??????????????1.5°C??????????20???????????,????????????1.5°C??????????20???,?????20??????
?????????Alex J. Cannon?????CMIP6??,2024???6???12???1.5°C,?????«?»??,???12????1.5°C?????(??20????)?????????????????,?????????SSP2-4.5???????,????76%,?SSP1-2.6?,????56%?
????,????,?????????????????????18???1.5°C?????????,?????????SSP2-4.5?????,???
????,????????????????????????????,??????????,?????????????,?????«?»??????????????(????) ??????:??
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?????2024???????:????????????1.5°C??????????????????