2024????????????:?????1.5°C???????

????2???????????11??????? (??? ???)????????????????????????«????-?????????????»?2024??????????«???»????,2024??1.5°C,???1.5°C??,??????????????«???????»??????

?????«????»?????????1.5°C????????,2015????,«?????»??,??????????????1.5°C??«????????»??20-30?,??????????(????????)????????????????

??????,????????20???????????2020????????2030???????????????????????????????,????2024????????1.5°C????,???«?»??????????

??,??????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???????“?????????6”(CMIP6)?????????,?????????????????1981????2014???????

??????,????0.6°C-1°C????,????????20???????????????????????????,?????????????????2024??????????????????????1.5°C,????20??????????,?,2024????(???????66%)?????(???99%)??????1.5°C???????????????20?????

??,?????(SSP)2-4.5?????,??????,??????1.5°C?????20??????????????,????1.5°C?????20?????????????????????,??????20???????????

??????????????Alex J. Cannon????????????CMIP6?????????,2024????6?12?????1.5°C,??«?????»??????????????,??????12?1.5°C????(???20???)???????????????????,??SSP2-4.5????????????,??????????76%,??????????SSP1-2.6??????????,????????????56%?

??,???????,???18?????1.5°C???????,??SSP2-4.5????,????

????,????????????????????,???????,????,????«???????????»??????????????(?????) ??:????????