???

2024???????:????????????1.5°C?????

2025-02-11 17:03:46 17312

????2????????????????11???? (????? ????????)??????????????????????????«??????-????»????2024?«??»?????,2024??????????1.5°C,?1.5°C???,?????«??????????»???????????

???«?????????»???????1.5°C????????,2015??,«?????????»????,???????????????1.5°C??«?????»??20-30???????????????,??(??????)????????????

???????,?20?2020???????2030???????????,?????????????????2024?????1.5°C?????,?????????«????»???????

???,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“?6”(CMIP6)????????????????,?????1981??????????2014???????????

??????????????,?????????0.6°C-1°C??????????,?????20???????????,????2024??????????????1.5°C,?????20??????,?????????????????,2024?????????????(???????????66%)????????????(??99%)??1.5°C???20?????????????

??????,???????(SSP)2-4.5?????????????????????,??????,????????1.5°C??20????????????,?????????????????1.5°C????????20?????????,??????????????20???????

??????????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6??????????,2024??????6?????????12???????1.5°C,????«??»?????,????12????1.5°C???????(????20????????????)??????????,????????SSP2-4.5???,????76%,???SSP1-2.6??,?????56%?

???????????,????,???????18???????1.5°C????,????????SSP2-4.5????,??????????????

?,??????????,???????,????,?????????????????????«??????????????????????»?????(??) ???????????:??????


????23?????????????


??????

???????