????2?????????????????????11????????? (????? ????)????????«????-?????»?2024??????????????«?????»????????????????,2024?1.5°C,???1.5°C???????,?????«?????»??????

?????????????«?????»??1.5°C?????????????????,2015??,«????»???,?????????1.5°C?????«??????????»???20-30???,??????(?????)?????

??????,???????20?2020??2030???????????????,??2024????1.5°C?????????,???«???»??????

???????,????????????????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????“????6”(CMIP6)????,?????????????????1981??????2014??????????????

??????,????????0.6°C-1°C?,????20??????????,????????2024????1.5°C,???20???????,????????,2024???????(????66%)????(????99%)??????????????1.5°C??????????20????????

??????????????????????,???????????????(SSP)2-4.5????????,?????????,??1.5°C????????????20????????????????,????????????1.5°C??????????20??????????????????????,????20???????????

??????????Alex J. Cannon??CMIP6?????????????????,2024????????????????6?????????12????????1.5°C,??«???????????»??????,???12???1.5°C??????(??20???)???????????????????,??????SSP2-4.5????,?76%,???????????????SSP1-2.6?,?56%?

????,??,??18?????????1.5°C????,???????????????SSP2-4.5?????????????????,?????

??,???????????????????,???????,???????,?????«???????»??????(????) ???????????:????????

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