2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

?2??11????? (??? ????)????????«??????-???????????»???2024?????«???????»????????,2024????????????????1.5°C,????1.5°C?,????????«??»?????

??«??????»???????1.5°C??????????????????????????????,2015?????????????????????,«???????»????????,?????1.5°C?????«????»?????????20-30?????,?????????(????)???????

?,???????????????20?2020????????2030???????,???????2024??????1.5°C????,??«????????»???????????

????,?????Emanuele Bevacqua???????“?????6”(CMIP6)??????????,????????????1981??????2014?????

??,????????0.6°C-1°C??????????????,????20?????????,???????2024??????????1.5°C,?????20?????????,????,2024??????????(??????????????66%)????(??????????????????????99%)???????????1.5°C??????20??????????

?,??????????(SSP)2-4.5????,??????????,??????????????1.5°C??20??????????,????1.5°C????20??????????,???????20??????

?????????????????????Alex J. Cannon??????CMIP6???,2024?6?????????12??????1.5°C,??«?????»??????????,????????12??1.5°C??(??20?????????????????)???????????????????????,?????SSP2-4.5?????????????,???????76%,??????SSP1-2.6???,????????56%?

???????????,?????,?18????1.5°C???,?????????????????????SSP2-4.5??,?????

???????????????,??????????,??????????????????????,????????????,???«?????»??????(?????????????????) ???????????:????