2024?????:???????1.5°C????????????

??????2????11????? (???????? ?)?????????????«?????????????????-??»????????2024????????????«???»??,2024??1.5°C,??1.5°C?????????????????????,???????«???????»?????

?«??????»????????????????1.5°C???????????????????????,2015???,«?????????»??????????????,??1.5°C????????????«?????»???20-30?????????????????????,????(?????)??????????

??????,????20????2020????????2030?????????,?????????????????2024??????1.5°C??,?????«?????»???

???????,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????????“????6”(CMIP6)??????????,????1981??2014???????

?????,???0.6°C-1°C????,???????????20????????????,?????????????????2024?????1.5°C,?20??????,???????,2024?????(?????????????66%)????????????????(???99%)???????????????1.5°C????20?????????

??????????,????????(SSP)2-4.5???????,?????????,????1.5°C?????20?????????????????????????????????,????1.5°C????20????,??20?????????

???????????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6??????,2024?6?????12??????????????1.5°C,??????????«???????»??,???????????12??????????1.5°C??????(???????20???)?????????????,???????SSP2-4.5?,??????????????????????76%,?SSP1-2.6???????????????,??????????56%?

????,????,?????18??????????1.5°C????????????,????SSP2-4.5??????,????

???,??????????,?????,?????,???????«???»???(?????????????) ???????:???