2024????????????:?????1.5°C???????

????:?????:???9598??

????2?????11????????????? (???? ?)?????«??????????-???????»????2024?????????????????«????????????????»?????,2024??????1.5°C,???1.5°C????,??«????»?????

?«??????????»???????????1.5°C???????????????????,2015?,«??»???????????,?????????1.5°C?????????«????????»???????20-30???????,?????(?????????)??????

?,???????20?????????2020????????????2030?????????,?????????2024?????1.5°C??,??????????«??»??????

?????,?????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????????????????“??????????????6”(CMIP6)?????,??1981?2014???

???,??0.6°C-1°C????,????20???????????????????????????,??????????2024??????1.5°C,????????20????????????,???????,2024????(??66%)???(??????99%)?????????????????????1.5°C???????20??????

??????????,????????(SSP)2-4.5???????,??????????,???1.5°C???????????????20???????????????,????1.5°C?????20?????????,??20?????

??????????????Alex J. Cannon????????CMIP6???????????????,2024????????????6???????12??1.5°C,????????????????«???»????,???12??????1.5°C?????(?20??)??????????,??????????SSP2-4.5???,????????????76%,???SSP1-2.6????,??????56%?

???,??????????,????18????????1.5°C?????,?SSP2-4.5????????,??????????

???????????,???????????????????????,?????????????????,?????????????????,??????«?????????????????????»???????(??????) ???:?????