????:2025-02-11 14:43:15 ??:????
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????2????11???? (????????????????????? ?????????)??????«???-?»????2024????«????»?????????????,2024??????????1.5°C,????1.5°C???????????,?«?????????????????»????
??????????«????»??1.5°C???????,2015????????????,«?????????????????»???????,?????????1.5°C???????????«??????????????????????»?20-30???,?(????)?????
??,????????????????20??2020?????????2030???????????,??????????2024????????1.5°C???????????????,??????????????????????«??????»???
????????,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????“???????6”(CMIP6)???????,?????????1981????????????2014??????
??????????,?0.6°C-1°C????,????20??????????,??????????????2024????????1.5°C,???????????20????????????????,????,2024?????(?????????????????66%)????????(??????99%)?????1.5°C???20??????
????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,??????,????????1.5°C???20??????????,???1.5°C??????????????20??????????,???????20??????
?????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6?????,2024?6????12???????????????1.5°C,??«??????????»???????????,?????12??1.5°C??????(?????20??????)???????,????????SSP2-4.5?????????????,??76%,???SSP1-2.6?????????????????????,???56%?
???,?????,?18????????????????1.5°C???????,???????SSP2-4.5?,??????
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