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2024?????:???????1.5°C????????????

????:2025-02-11 14:43:15 ??:????

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????2????11???? (????????????????????? ?????????)??????«???-?»????2024????«????»?????????????,2024??????????1.5°C,????1.5°C???????????,?«?????????????????»????

??????????«????»??1.5°C???????,2015????????????,«?????????????????»???????,?????????1.5°C???????????«??????????????????????»?20-30???,?(????)?????

??,????????????????20??2020?????????2030???????????,??????????2024????????1.5°C???????????????,??????????????????????«??????»???

????????,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????“???????6”(CMIP6)???????,?????????1981????????????2014??????

??????????,?0.6°C-1°C????,????20??????????,??????????????2024????????1.5°C,???????????20????????????????,????,2024?????(?????????????????66%)????????(??????99%)?????1.5°C???20??????

????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,??????,????????1.5°C???20??????????,???1.5°C??????????????20??????????,???????20??????

?????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6?????,2024?6????12???????????????1.5°C,??«??????????»???????????,?????12??1.5°C??????(?????20??????)???????,????????SSP2-4.5?????????????,??76%,???SSP1-2.6?????????????????????,???56%?

???,?????,?18????????????????1.5°C???????,???????SSP2-4.5?,??????

???????,????????????,????????????,?????,????????«???????»?????(???) ?????:???????????????

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