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???????2???????????11??????? (?? ????)???????????«???-?»?????2024????«???????????»??????,2024???1.5°C,?1.5°C????????,????«??????????????»??????????????????

????????«??????»???1.5°C?????,2015?????,«?????????»????,????1.5°C???????????«????????»???????20-30??????????,????(???)???

???,??????????????????????20????2020???2030?????????????,??2024??????????????1.5°C?????????,?????????????«????»????

????????,???????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???????????????“??6”(CMIP6)?????????,???1981?????2014????????

?????,???0.6°C-1°C????,?????????????20?????????????,?2024?????1.5°C,??????20?????????????????????,?????????????????,2024???????????(????66%)????(?????????????????????99%)??????1.5°C????20??????

????????????,??????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????????,????????,????????????1.5°C??????20????????,????????1.5°C?20?????,????20?????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6?????,2024????6????????12??1.5°C,??????????«??»?????,????????????????12?????????1.5°C??????(???20????)?????????????????????,?SSP2-4.5?,??????????????????????76%,????????SSP1-2.6??,????56%?

??,????????????,??????????????18???????1.5°C??????,???????SSP2-4.5????,???????????

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