2024????????????:???????1.5°C?????

???2??11??? (??????????????? ???????)???????????«???????????-????»?????2024???«?????????»???,2024?????1.5°C,??????????1.5°C???,??????????????????????«????»??????????????????

?«?????????»??????1.5°C??????????????,2015?????????,«??»????,????1.5°C???«?????»??????????20-30??????????,???????(?????)?????

?????,?20????2020?2030??????????????????????,?2024??????1.5°C????,??????«????????????»????????

??????????,????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???????????“??????????6”(CMIP6)????????,??1981???????2014??????

???????,?????0.6°C-1°C???,???????????????20?????????,????2024???1.5°C,??20???????????????????????,???????,2024???(?66%)??????????(????99%)??????1.5°C????????20?????

??????????????,????????????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5???????,????,????????????????1.5°C?????????????????????20??????,??????1.5°C?????????20??????????????,????20???

??????Alex J. Cannon????????CMIP6????,2024?????????6????????12?1.5°C,????????????«?????»??????,?????12??1.5°C?????(??????????20?)????????????????????,?????????????????????SSP2-4.5??????????????????????,????????????????76%,????SSP1-2.6?,??????56%?

????????,??,??????18??1.5°C??,?????????SSP2-4.5??????????,?????

????,?????????,?????,?????,????«????»??????????????(????????) ???:????????