????:???????????:????VX
????????2?????11????? (???? ???)???????????????????«???-???»????2024???????«??????????»??????????????,2024????1.5°C,????1.5°C??????????,???????«?»???
???«?????????????»?1.5°C?????????????,2015?????????,«????????????»??????????,??????????1.5°C???????????????«??????»??????20-30????,?(??????)???
????,?????????20?????2020?2030????????,?????2024????????????????1.5°C??????????,?????«?????????????????»?????????????????
??,???????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???????“??6”(CMIP6)??????????,???1981???????2014?????
?,????0.6°C-1°C????,?????????????????????20??????,????????2024???????????????1.5°C,??????20??????????????,????,2024?????(?????66%)?(????????99%)???????1.5°C?????????????20???????????????????????
????,??????????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????,??,?????1.5°C????????????20??????????????????,????1.5°C????20?????????????????,????20??????
??????????????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6????????,2024?????6????12??????1.5°C,?????????«?????»??,????????12?1.5°C??????????????(??20??)??????????,??SSP2-4.5??????,?????????76%,???????????SSP1-2.6?,????56%?
???????,?????,????18?????????????????????1.5°C???????,??SSP2-4.5????,???????????????????????
????,??????????????,???,??,???????«?????»?????????(?????????) ????????????:???????
