2024?????:???????1.5°C????????????

????2???????11???? (? ??)?????????????«??????-?»???????2024??«???????»????????,2024????1.5°C,?1.5°C??,????«?????????????»???????????????

??«????????»????1.5°C????????????,2015???????????,«??????????»?????,???1.5°C??????????«????????»???20-30????,????????????????(??????)????????

?????,??????????20?????????????????????2020????????????????2030??????????,????????????2024????1.5°C?????????,????«????»??????????????????

??????????,?????????????????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“??????6”(CMIP6)????,??1981?2014?????

??,?????0.6°C-1°C???????????????,??????????20??????????,??2024????????1.5°C,??????????20????????????,???????,2024???(????????????66%)??(????99%)??????1.5°C???????20?????

??,?????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????????????????????,?????,?????????1.5°C???20?????????,??????????????1.5°C?20?????????????????????,??20????????

????????????????Alex J. Cannon???????????????CMIP6??????,2024???6????????12??????????1.5°C,?????«????????????»?????????????????,???????????12????1.5°C???????????(???20??)???????????,?????SSP2-4.5???,?????????76%,????????SSP1-2.6??,??????????56%?

?????,?????????????????,????18?????1.5°C?????,???SSP2-4.5????,??

??????,??????????????????????,????,?????,?????«?»????(??????) ?????:???????