????????????????2??????????????????????19???? (??????????????)????2??19?,2024????,????1097.5???????(??????????,???????),?????9.2%,????3.6??,????

????????????????????

??,????????????“???+????”???,????????“??”??????????????,???????242????????????????200???????3746??928.07???“????,??2024?????,??????1796??????,??????????19.4%?”

???,???????????????????????????,????????,???????????“?????????????????????????????????????????”??,?“??????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????”???“???????????”???2024??,??????2057.78???????,??????????????????17.7%,???7.8???

????,???????????????“??”,??“?????”????????????,??????“??????,???”?

“‘?????’??????????,??????????????????????”???????????,“??????????????????”?,???,???,????????????????????????????????,“??”????113?????????384??????????,????308???????

?????????????????,???(????AIC)????“??”?,????“?????”???“?????????????????”?????????????,?????????,???“????,????????????????????6??AIC?,?????40??????AIC???????,?????????”(????)

?????:??????????? ??“??????”????

?? 2024???????????? ?????????????

????:1???????:???????

2?????

3????????

4???????

5?????

????????????????2??????????????????????19???? (??????????????)????2??19?,2024????,????1097.5???????(??????????,???????),?????9.2%,????3.6??,????

????????????????????

??,????????????“???+????”???,????????“??”??????????????,???????242????????????????200???????3746??928.07???“????,??2024?????,??????1796??????,??????????19.4%?”

???,???????????????????????????,????????,???????????“?????????????????????????????????????????”??,?“??????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????”???“???????????”???2024??,??????2057.78???????,??????????????????17.7%,???7.8???

????,???????????????“??”,??“?????”????????????,??????“??????,???”?

“‘?????’??????????,??????????????????????”???????????,“??????????????????”?,???,???,????????????????????????????????,“??”????113?????????384??????????,????308???????

?????????????????,???(????AIC)????“??”?,????“?????”???“?????????????????”?????????????,?????????,???“????,????????????????????6??AIC?,?????40??????AIC???????,?????????”(????)

?????:???????????