??
??2???11???? (???? ??????????????)????????????????«?????-???????????»??????????????????????2024???????«?????????»????,2024?1.5°C,?????1.5°C???,???«????????»???????????????
?????????«???????»???????????1.5°C?????????,2015?????????????????,«????»??????,????1.5°C????«??????»???????20-30????,???(???????)?????
?????,??20????2020???????2030?????????????????????????,?????????????????????2024????1.5°C??,????????????«???????????????»???????????
????,?????Emanuele Bevacqua?????????“???6”(CMIP6)???,??1981?????2014?????
????????,???????0.6°C-1°C??????,????20???????????,????2024??????1.5°C,??20??????????????,??,2024??????????(????????66%)??(?99%)?????????1.5°C??????????20??
?????,??????????????(SSP)2-4.5????????,????,??????????1.5°C????20????????????????????????????????,????????????1.5°C????20?????,??????20?????
????????????????Alex J. Cannon????????????CMIP6?????,2024?????????????6??????12???????????1.5°C,??«?????????»?,??12??????1.5°C?????????????????(?????????20??????????????????????)??????????,?SSP2-4.5????????,????76%,??????????SSP1-2.6????,????????56%?
????,????,??18????????????????1.5°C?,?????SSP2-4.5?????,????????
?????,???????????????????,?????????????????,??,???«?»?????????(????????????????) ??:??????
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?????2024???????:?????1.5°C?????????????????????????