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?????«????»?1.5°C??????????,2015???,«???»????,???1.5°C?????????????????«????»????20-30??????????,??(????)?????????????????
??,?????????20??????2020?2030???????????,??????2024????????1.5°C???,????«????????»????????
????,?????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????“??6”(CMIP6)???????????,???????1981?????????????2014???????
??????,????????????0.6°C-1°C?,???????????20?????????????,???2024??1.5°C,?????????????????????20????????????,?,2024?(????66%)????(?????99%)????1.5°C?????????20???
??????????????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,???????,?????????1.5°C???20????????,???????????????1.5°C????????20??????????,??20??????????????????
???????Alex J. Cannon?????????????????????CMIP6??????????,2024???????6?????????12???????1.5°C,????«??????????????????????»????????,???12????????????1.5°C???(?????20???????????)?????????????????????????,???????????????SSP2-4.5????,????76%,?????SSP1-2.6?,??56%?
?????,?????,??18??1.5°C????,????SSP2-4.5????,???????
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