??2????11???? (???????????? ??????)????????????????????????????«????-?????»??2024????«??????»????????,2024????1.5°C,????1.5°C??????,?«???»???????????

??????????????«??????»?????????????????????1.5°C????????????????,2015???????????????,«???»??????,?????????????????1.5°C?????????????«?????????»?????20-30????????????????,????(????)???

???,????20????2020???????2030?????????,??????????2024???1.5°C?????????????????,????????«????????»???????????????????????

???????????,?????????Emanuele Bevacqua?“????6”(CMIP6)??,????????1981??????????2014???

??????????,?????0.6°C-1°C???????????????,?????????20??????,??????????????????????2024?????????????1.5°C,???20????????,???????,2024????(?????66%)?????(????99%)?????????????????1.5°C?20????????

?????,??????????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????????????,????????,?1.5°C?????????20???????????????,????1.5°C?????20?????,????????????20????

????????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6????,2024?????????6????12???????1.5°C,?«??????????»????,?????????12??1.5°C?????????(??????????20????)???????????????????,????????SSP2-4.5??,??76%,????SSP1-2.6?????,?56%?

???????,?????,????????18?1.5°C???,???SSP2-4.5???????????,???????

??????,????????????????????,???????,???,????????«??»???????????(?????) ????:??

??

??:???????????,??????????,??????????????