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2?????

3?95??92????

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??2??????????????11?????? (????? ???????)??????«????????-??????????»??????????2024?????????«??»????,2024??????1.5°C,???????1.5°C???,?«????»??????

???????«????»???1.5°C???????????????,2015?????,«???????»????????,????1.5°C?????«?????»???????????????20-30??,??????????(????????????????)??????

????,????????20??????2020??2030?????????????????????????????,???????2024?????1.5°C?????????????????,?????????«??»????

?????,????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?“????????????????6”(CMIP6)???????????,?1981??????????2014???

????????????,??????0.6°C-1°C??????,??????20????????,?2024????????????1.5°C,?20????????????????????????,??????????????,2024?????????(????????66%)???(????99%)??1.5°C?????????????????20?????

??,???????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5????????????,??????????????????????,????1.5°C????????20??????????????????,???1.5°C??????????????20????????,?????????????20????

??????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6???,2024????6?????12???????????1.5°C,????«????»??,????12????1.5°C??????????(??????????20?)???????????????,??????????SSP2-4.5????,????76%,???????????SSP1-2.6???,????56%?

???????,?????,??????????18?????????1.5°C???,?????????SSP2-4.5???????,???????

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