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?2????11?????????????? (??????? ?????????????)???????????????«????-???»????2024???«???»????????????,2024????1.5°C,???1.5°C?????,?????????«?»????????????

????«?????»????????1.5°C??????????,2015?????,«??»??,?????????????1.5°C???????«????????????????»??20-30?????,?(????)???????????????

????,?????????20???????2020??2030????????????,??????2024?????1.5°C?????????????????,????????????????«?????»?????

??????????,??????????Emanuele Bevacqua?“????6”(CMIP6)????,???????????????1981????2014???

????????,?0.6°C-1°C??????????????????????,????20?????????????????????,???2024????1.5°C,?????20?????????????????,???????,2024??????????(?????66%)??(???????99%)????1.5°C?????????????????20????

???????,????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????????,??,???????1.5°C??????20?????????????????,??????????????1.5°C??????????????????????20?????,?????????20?????

???????????Alex J. Cannon??CMIP6?,2024??????6??????????12????1.5°C,????????«?????????????????????»????,???????????12????????????1.5°C?????(?????????20?)???????????????????????,????????SSP2-4.5???????,????76%,????SSP1-2.6??????????,?????56%?

?????,????????,?????18????1.5°C???,???SSP2-4.5??????,???????

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