????2??????????11????? (???? ????)?????????????????????«????????-?????????»????????????2024?«?????????»?????,2024?????????1.5°C,???1.5°C?????,????«??????????»??

??«??»???????1.5°C??????,2015????,«??????????????»?????????????????,???1.5°C????????«??????»?????20-30??,????????(????????????????)???

????,?????????????????????20???????2020????2030??????????????,???2024????1.5°C??????????????,????«?????????????????»??????????????

?,????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????“??????6”(CMIP6)?,???1981??2014???

????,?????0.6°C-1°C?????????????????,??20??????????????????,??????2024?????1.5°C,???20???????????,????????????????,2024????(??66%)?????(?????99%)?????1.5°C?20????

???????,???????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????????????????????,????,????1.5°C????20??????????????????????,????1.5°C???20?????,??????????????????????20??????????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon????????CMIP6???????,2024??????6????12???????????????1.5°C,??«?»????????,???12??????1.5°C????(???20??????????)?????????????,??SSP2-4.5??????????,??????????76%,??????????SSP1-2.6??,???56%?

???????,???????????,????18????????1.5°C???????????,??????????SSP2-4.5??????,???????????????????????

???,????????????,?????,????,????????????«?????»?????????(??????) ?????:???????????

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