????“????”?

????:????:?????????

??:???????

???????2025.2.24?????1176??????????«???????????»????????

2025??????????????2???????????????18??????,?????????????,??????“????????????????????”???????“??????????”????????????,?????

???????????????????,??????????,???????,????????????????,??????,???????

??,???????????????“?????????,??”,??????????????“????????????”???????,?18?,?????????????????????????“????”??,??????????

?????????????????2?18??????,????????????,??“??????,??”??????????????,“??????????,‘?,??????????????’???????????????,?????????(???????????????)?”

????????????,????????????,?,???????????????????,??,??????????????????????“????????”?

??????????????????????????????“??”?????????????????????????

?????????

2???13??????????????,???????????????????????????????????,??????“?????”??,??,?????????“????????”?

??????????????????2024?????????,?????????????????,?????????????????????,?????????:“?????????????????????38??????”

??,?????????????????????,??

“?????,?????,???????????????(???)??????”???????(OSCE)?????«???????»?????

??2??????13???????????,?:??????,??????????????????,?????????,????????

“??????????(???????????)???????????,????????:??????????”???????????(ECFR)???????????????????????,?????,????,???????????,??????

????,????“??????????????????”??????,??????????????????,???“???????”????????“24?????????”??????“???????????”?????????“??(4????????????????????20???????????????)????????????????”,?????????????????????????????????????,??????????

??,2?????????18?????,??????????????,????????????????????????????????????,???????????

????,?,????????????????????“?????????????”??????????????????«?»????????,????,??????????“?????????????????????????”?

????????????,??????????,????????,????2024???????,?????????????,??????????????,????????????????????????????????,?????????

??????????????????????,????????2025?????????????,?????????????????,???????????1991??“??????????”,?????????“??????????????????,???”?????,?,?????????????????????

??????????2022?????????,??????,??????,????????“??????”?????????????????,2022?????????????,????????????????????????,????,?????????

???????,???????????????????“?????,???????????,????????????,???????????????”???????????????«?????????»????????????????????,“?????,???????????????,??????”

???,????,????????????????????,?????????,??,????????“??,?????????????????”

??????????????????????????????????????????????????“????????????”????(shock and awe)?????????«?????»?????????????,???????????????,?“???????????????,??????,??,??????”?

“???,???,??????????????”???????????????????????????,“???????”???????????,????“?????????????????”?

????,????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????,?????????,?????;????????????????????????????,????????“???????”,???????,?“?????????????????????????”?,?????,????“???????”?

6?????????2019????????,?????,????????????????,???????????????:??????,??????????????????????????????????,????????????????????

????,?????????????,??????????????,?“????????????????????????”????????????????????????????,????,???????2022???,??,????????????????,“?????????????????????(??????????)???,??????,???”?

???,???????????????,?????,??????????????????,?????????????“?”?

“????????????????”

2025????????2????14??????????,???????????????????,«??????????????????»????????????????????????,???????“???????????????”???:“????????????,??????????????????,??????”

??,????????????????????????????????????,??,???????“?????????”,?????????????????????????????,?????“??????”?????????????,????????????????????“????????,??????????”?

???????????????????????,???,???????“???????????????????”?,????“???”???????????«???»???

??????????????,????????“?????????”??,??2025??1????????????????,????????,??????????????,“??????,???????????????????”????????????????,??????????,???????,??“?????”?

“????,?????,??????????”?????????,“?????????,???????????????????”

?????????????????2024???????????12?,????,??????????????“?”,?????????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????,?“????????????????”????,??????????,?????????

?,????????????????????????????????????:2019?,????????????“???”?,?????????2020???????????????????????“???????????????”,???????“??????”???

???????????,???????“?”,??????????????????????,2014????????????????,???????????????????????«??????????????????????????»,?????????????,??????“??????”?????????????????

????2020 ????????????? 6 ??????,???????,????????????“????”,??????????????????????????????????????????2016???????????????2022??????????????2???????????,???8????????????????????????,???

??????????,????????????,?2014????????????????????????????2022?,???????,???????“??????”,????????????????????2022?????????:??????5????????????????,??????????????????“???????????????,??”?

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????«?????»???,??,?????,??????,???????????:“?,?????????????????‘????,??’?”

?????,?????????????????“???????????”????“??????”??????????????????,????,??,????,??????????????????,?,?????????????????,???????

“??,?????????,????????????????,????‘??’?”??????????

???,???????????????,?????????????????????,???????????????:?,????????????????,??????

?????????????????????????????????,?????????,??????:??????????????????????????????:??,???????????????????????????????????????????????????

“??????????????????”

2024?????????????????12??18???,“?????????????”???,?,????????,?????????????“??”?????????????,?????????

???????????????????????,??????????????,????12?????14????????????15????“??????????????????”,???????????“????”?????????????????,??,???????:??????????????,??????????????????????“????????”?

????????????????????????,????????????????,?????????????????????,????????????,??????????

?,??????????“????????”???????????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????7????????????????????«???????»?????????????????,?“????????????”???????????????;???????,?“??????????”;???????

????????????????????,?????????????????,??“??”??,??“???????????????”????????????????

????,????????????????????“??,????”;?????,?????????????“??????”???,??????????????,??????????“????????????????”?

????????,???2025????????????????2??12??????,???????14????????????????1.8???????????????,???????????????????,????50%?????????

?????????????????????,???????????????,????,???????????????????????????:???????,???

??????????????????????????????“??”???????,?????????15%,????2024?????????5??????23%???“?????????????”,?,?????????,?:?????

???????????????????,??????????????????????(GDP)??????????0.75%???,??????????GDP??0.52%,??????????????11???????

??????????????,?“????????”,?“???”?????????????????????,??????????,??,????????,?5000?????????????

???????????????????,????????,???????????????????????,?????????????????????,?????,???????????,????“????????”????????????????

??????????,????????:??????????,“???????????”???????????????,?????????????:“???????????????,???????????????,????????????”

??????,??????,?????????????????????700?????,?????????????????:“?,????????,???????????????????????:?????????????”

2024??????????????????,???????????????,??“??????”?

“???????????:???????????,??,???????”???????????1918??,????????????????,???????????????(John Joseph Pershing)??“???????,?????20???”,??????????????????????????????

“????????????????????????????”???????????????????????????????:???????,?????“??????????”???????,???

???????????«??»?????????,??,?????????????????????????,????????????,??????????????????,???“??????”??????????,????????????????????

???,????????,?????????????????????????,????“?”,???????????????????????????,??????????,????????????????????,?????“????????,?????????????????”?

?????????2025????????????????2?????17?,??????????“????????????????????”???????????????????????3?????????????,???,??????

?????“????????????”???????????????????,???????,????????????“??????”????????????“?”;???????,???????????????????«???????»????????,???????????,????????????????????????,?“?????????????”?

«?????»2025????????????????????6??

????????????????:??????????«???????»? ??:?????????????