2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

???????2??????????11???? (? ????)???????«????-???»????2024??«?????????????????»????,2024??1.5°C,?????1.5°C??????????,???????????«?????????????»???????????????

???????????«??»????1.5°C????????,2015?,«????????????»??????,???1.5°C??????«????»?????????????????20-30????????,??????(?????????)?????????????

???????,????????????????20?????????????2020??2030??????????????????,????2024??1.5°C??,??????????«????????»???????????

????????,??????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????????????????“?????????6”(CMIP6)?????,?????????1981?????2014?????

??????????,????????0.6°C-1°C????????,????????20??????????????,?????????????????????2024????1.5°C,??????20?????????????,??????,2024????????????????(???66%)?????(?????99%)??1.5°C??????????????????????20???

?,???????????(SSP)2-4.5???????????????,???????,?????1.5°C??????????????????????20???????????????????????,???????1.5°C?????20????????????,???20?????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon???????CMIP6????,2024?6????12???1.5°C,????«???»????,???????????????12?????????1.5°C?(??????????????20????)?????????????,?SSP2-4.5????,?76%,????SSP1-2.6??????,?56%?

?????,???????????,??18????1.5°C?????,??????????SSP2-4.5?????,???

???,?????????,?????,????????,???«???»???????????????(??????) ????????:????????