????:????,???????“??????”?

????:??????:?????50?

??12???4??(???????)“??!”4?,??,????????????????

?,?,??,???????,?????……?,????????????

???,??3????????????????????????????????????????????????“????”?

?????????????1987????????????,?????????????,?????????,???????????????????????2024??????????,???????????“??”?

???,???????????????????????????????,???????,??????4????,?????,?????????????????

????????12????3??????????,????4??,?????????????????? ????????????? ?????????????

??????????

“???”

??,??

?????????,????,????????????“???????”?

???,???????,???????????????????????????????????,???“????”?

?????,????6???????????????????“?????????”?????,????“?”,??????????????,??

?????????,???,????????????,???????????,?,?????????????????????

????,??????,????,??????,?????“?????????,????????????????????????????????,???”???????

??????????????,????“????”,??????????????,???????????????????“???????????????????????????”,?“????”,??????

?????????,“?????,?????”

???,?????????????????????,?????,???,?????“?????????”???

??«????????»????????,?????????????????????,?????????????????

????,????,1987?????????????,???10????????,?????????????????,?“??”?????????????????,?????????,?????????????????“??”??,????,?,????????????????

???????12???????????????4??????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????? ??? ??

?????????

“?????????????????”

???“???”????????????????

??????,???????,????????????,?????????????,????,????????“???????????????????????????????????”????????

??,????????????????????????11??29?????,?????????19%,?72%?

??????,????????,???

??????????????????,?,????????????????,“??”?????,?????????????????????????,???

?????,?????,???????,????????,?????????????,“???????”,????????????????????

???????????????,???????,??????????????,?,?????????????“??????????????????????????”,?????,???

?,???????«???????????????»????????????????,??????,??????“????”,??,???????????????????????“????????”??????????????????????,??????????????,?????????????

3?????,????????????(CSIS)???????,“????????????????”???,???????,???????????????“???”??????????????,?????“?”??????

?????12????????????????3???????????????,????????????,???4??????,?????????????,???????????????,?????????????????????????

????

“????”

????????????“?????”?????,?????

???,????,?“??”?

????????????“?”????1980???5???,?????????44???????????,?????,??????,???????

“????????,?????,???????????????????,?,??????”????

????????????????????????????,?????????????

??????,???????????????????????,6????14????40?????????

???????,????“????????????????????”“???”……?,????????????“??????”?????

??????????????,“????,?????,????,????????,????”

“?????????????”?????????????????

?????????,?24?72??????????????????,??????6?????200??????????????,?????

????????,???????????????,??,“???????”??,?????????

????????????,??????2025????????????1???,?????????,????“???????????”??????????????????,??????????,???????

“???,????????,?????,??????”???????

???????:??????????????