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????2??11?? (? ?????)????????«???-?????????»?????2024?????«????»??,2024???????1.5°C,??????????1.5°C??????,????«????»?????

????????????????«?»??????1.5°C????????????????????????,2015??,«??????????»????,?1.5°C??????«????»????20-30????,?????????????????(???????)?????

???????????????,???????20????????????2020???????2030???????????????,??2024?1.5°C??????,??????«????????»????????

?????????????,????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???????????“??6”(CMIP6)??????????,?????1981???????????2014????

??????????????????????,??????????????0.6°C-1°C?????,???????20???????????????????,?????2024?????1.5°C,????20???????,????,2024????(???66%)??????????????????????(???99%)????????1.5°C??????????20???

????,???????(SSP)2-4.5???,???????,????1.5°C????20??????????,?????????1.5°C??????20?????????????????,???20?????????

?????????????????Alex J. Cannon????????CMIP6???????????,2024??6?12???1.5°C,????«??????????»????????,????????????12?????????????????1.5°C????(????????20?????????)????????????,??SSP2-4.5???,??????????76%,?SSP1-2.6?????????,?????????56%?

??,??????????,??????18????????1.5°C?????????????????????,?????SSP2-4.5???????????????,??

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