2024????????????:???????1.5°C?????

?????2?????11???? (??????? ???????????)????????«??-??»????2024????«??????????»?????,2024?????1.5°C,???1.5°C????,?«?????????»?????

????«???»?????1.5°C?????????????,2015?????????????,«????????»??,??????1.5°C??????????????????????«????»??????20-30?????,??(???????????????)??????????

????,???20???????2020????????????????2030???????????????????????,????2024?????1.5°C????????,????????????«???????»??????

??,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????“????6”(CMIP6)????????????????,??????????1981?????2014????????????

???,??????0.6°C-1°C???????,????????20???????????,??????2024?????????????????1.5°C,???????????????20????????,?????????,2024????(?66%)????????(?????99%)??????1.5°C????????????20??????????

????,??????????????(SSP)2-4.5??,????,????1.5°C???????20????????????????????,???1.5°C?20??????????????????????,??20??????????????

???????????????????????Alex J. Cannon??????CMIP6?????,2024?6??12??1.5°C,????????????«?»??,??????????????????????12?1.5°C???(??????????20??????)???????????????????,??????????????SSP2-4.5??????????,????????76%,?????SSP1-2.6????,??56%?

????????,??????????????,??????????18???1.5°C?????,?????SSP2-4.5????,?????

????,?????????????????????,????,????,??????????«????»???(??????????) ????????????:?????????